ÿş<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">  <HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Al Jazeera - objective and balanced global news coverage and analysis- Features</TITLE> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=UTF-16"> <META http-equiv=Content-Type><LINK href="article-postwar-plans_files/style.css" type=text/css rel=stylesheet> <META content="MSHTML 6.00.2722.900" name=GENERATOR></HEAD> <BODY leftMargin=0 topMargin=10 rightMargin=0> <DIV align=center xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"> <CENTER> <TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 10px" align=left><IMG src="article-postwar-plans_files/banner.gif"></TD></TR> <TR> <TD><IMG src="article-postwar-plans_files/mainheader.jpg"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER></DIV> <DIV align=center> <CENTER> <TABLE id=AutoNumber2 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#999999 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=770 border=1> <TBODY> <TR> <TD> <TABLE id=AutoNumber3 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD class=dates id=hDate dir=ltr style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px" width="80%" bgColor=#cccccc></TD> <TD dir=ltr width="20%" bgColor=#cccccc></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE id=AutoNumber4 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=768 border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width=565> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD colSpan=2 height=5></TD></TR> <TR> <TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px" colSpan=2> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD class=indicationLink2 vAlign=top><A class=indicationLink href="http://www.thememoryhole.org/media/al-jazeera/index.html">Homepage<IMG src="article-postwar-plans_files/spacer.gif" width=2 border=0></A><IMG src="article-postwar-plans_files/spacer.gif" width=3 border=0><IMG src="article-postwar-plans_files/spacer.gif" width=3 border=0>/ <IMG src="article-postwar-plans_files/spacer.gif" width=2 border=0><A class=indicationLink href="http://www.thememoryhole.org/media/al-jazeera/topics/index8eb6.html?cu_no=1&template_id=277&temp_type=42">Features<IMG src="article-postwar-plans_files/spacer.gif" width=3 border=0></A>/ </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD colSpan=3 height=6></TD></TR> <TR> <TD width=10></TD> <TD><INPUT id=item_cu_no type=hidden value=1 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=item_no type=hidden value=491 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=version type=hidden value=1 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=date1 type=hidden value=25/03/2003 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=dateTime type=hidden value=" 9:47PM" xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=articalText type=hidden value="<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>US President George W Bush is confident of the war against Iraq going well. Among the many positive spin-offs, he promises, will be the emergence of a cohesive, vibrant and democratic Iraq from underneath its battle-ravaged ruins after the removal of President Saddam Hussein.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT size=2><FONT face=Arial>There is a ring of cow-boyish confidence in what the US president says. But&nbsp;his claims are far from convincing. </FONT>
<TABLE width=10 align=right border=0>

<TR>
<TD align=middle><FONT face=Arial><IMG height=150 src=_/mritems/images/2003/3/20/1_561_1_6.html width=190 border=0></FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD class=imgcaption id=Comment dir=rtl vAlign=top align=middle><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=1>Iraqi Kurd fighters on patrol near the frontline with Saddam</FONT></STRONG></TD></TR></TABLE></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>Would post-war Iraq survive in its present territorial state? Or will the tumult that would follow a successful&nbsp;US-led&nbsp;war let loose a whole range of internal forces in Iraq ultimately leading to the country’s disintegration into smaller states — in much the same way as the Balkans, or before it the old Soviet Union following the upheavals of Glasnost and Perestroika?</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dangling carrots whilst wielding a stick, the USA insists that Iraq will not be Balkanized. “We rule that out,” insisted the American secretary of State, Colin Powell, in a recent interview aimed primarily to win over the hearts of&nbsp; those who see themselves as Iraqi “nationalists.”&nbsp; “In the short term, we will reunify Iraq because at present the country is not united, and help to maintain its territorial integrity,”&nbsp; the secretary of state pledged.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>But notwithstanding the assurances, doubts linger. Divided among a Sunni centre, a Kurdish North and an overwhelmingly Shi’ite South, Iraq has never been a homogeneous and tightly-bound country. But like many artificial states before it, Saddam Hussein’s iron-grip rule has&nbsp;succeeded in papering over the cracks.</FONT></P>
<P><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Limiting Iranian influence</FONT></STRONG></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>Going by conventional wisdom, strategists are unanimous that a strong and viable Iraq - even under Saddam Hussein - has served the region well.&nbsp; The main purpose of a Sunni-led Iraq, as it has been under Saddam Hussein, was to counter-balance the more populous Shiite Iran and limit the influence of Islamist Iranian politics on the country’s majority religious grouping.&nbsp; </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>After the dust of the invasion settles, policymakers will be forced to review the assumption that Iraq is a natural bulwark against a potentially adventurous Iran. With&nbsp; Hussein removed and his stranglehold loosening, it would be only natural that the latent&nbsp;regional aspirations of the Kurds and the Shiites would come spilling out. They spell doom for Iraq’s existence as a single entity.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>With UN-enforced no fly zones in place, the Kurds in the north have already been enjoying limited autonomy and that may embolden them to stake further claims to a separate homeland. Saddam Hussein’s exit from the scene may even prompt the long-suppressed Shiites in the south to venture in a similar direction.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>But US-based academics argue that the Kurds and Shiites will be disappointed in the end since Iraq is too precious to be allowed to disintegrate.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>“It is in US interest that they would be staying together in one undivided Iraq,” explained Vijay Prashad, Assistant Professor of International Strategies at Trinity College in Hartford, Connecticut in the United States. Prashad in a recent article, “whoever replaces Saddam Hussein will have to work under the US dispensation, being the protector of the world’s second largest oil reservoirs as well as the main political-military force to counteract Iran and Saudi fundamentalism.”</FONT></P>
<P><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Turkey will resist greater autonomy for Kurds</FONT></STRONG></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>There are other reasons that could see the Kurds and the Shiites being denied the right to&nbsp;de-link from Sunni-ruled Iraq. The emergence of an independent Kurdistan on its borders&nbsp; will surely not be tolerated by Turkey, a crucial ally in US strategic plans for the Central Asia and the Caucasus. Turkey is apprehensive that a resurgent Kurdistan could trigger trouble among its own Kurdish population and stoke an independent struggle in its own backyard.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>The US is also unlikely to be eager to entertain the separatist aspirations of the Shiites. For one, the community’s main political organization — al-Dawa which has now transformed itself into the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), is known to be close to Iran. It was founded in Tehran and also boasts an armed wing, the Badr Brigade. Considering its suspected loyalties, the SCIRI is unlikely to find favour with the Americans. Neither will the Shiites in general, since the US would be ill at ease with another state where Shiites are in a demographic majority.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>All this and more surely means that any possible honeymoon period for US troops in northern and southern Iraq&nbsp;could be very short-lived.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Al Jazeera</STRONG></FONT></P>" xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"> <TABLE id=AutoNumber5 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD> <TABLE id=AutoNumber5 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD dir=ltr width="100%"><A href="http://www.thememoryhole.org/media/al-jazeera/xml/topics/printarticlec84b.xml?cu_no=1&item_no=491&version=1&template_id=277&parent_id=258"><IMG hspace=5 src="article-postwar-plans_files/print.gif" align=right vspace=5 border=0></A><IMG onmouseover="this.style.cursor = 'hand' ;" onclick=SendByEmail(); onmouseout="this.style.cursor = '' ;" hspace=5 src="article-postwar-plans_files/email.gif" align=right vspace=5 border=0></TD></TR> <TR> <TD height=5></TD></TR> <TR> <TD class=articalTitle>US post-war plans face powerful Shi'ite and Kurdish aspirations</TD></TR> <TR> <TD height=15></TD></TR> <TR> <TD id=artical vAlign=top></TD></TR> <TR> <TD height=12></TD></TR> <TR> <TD width="100%" background=article-postwar-plans_files/h-dotedline-bg.gif><IMG height=1 src="article-postwar-plans_files/spacer.gif" width=1></TD></TR> <TR> <TD height=10></TD></TR> <TR> <TD dir=ltr width="100%"><A href="http://www.thememoryhole.org/media/al-jazeera/xml/topics/printarticlec84b.xml?cu_no=1&item_no=491&version=1&template_id=277&parent_id=258"><IMG hspace=5 src="article-postwar-plans_files/print.gif" align=right vspace=5 border=0></A><IMG onmouseover="this.style.cursor = 'hand' ;" onclick=SendByEmail(); onmouseout="this.style.cursor = '' ;" hspace=5 src="article-postwar-plans_files/email.gif" align=right vspace=5 border=0></TD></TR> <TR> <TD height=5></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <SCRIPT language=JavaScript1.2 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"> if(document.all.artical) document.all.artical.innerHTML = document.all.articalText.value ; </SCRIPT> </TD> <TD width=10></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD> <TD dir=ltr width=1 bgColor=#cccccc><IMG height=1 src="article-postwar-plans_files/spacer.gif" width=1 border=0></TD> <TD vAlign=top width=202> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD colSpan=3 height=10></TD></TR> <TR> <TD width=10></TD> <TD><A href="http://www.thememoryhole.org/media/al-jazeera/index.html"><IMG src="article-postwar-plans_files/homepage.gif" border=0></A></TD> <TD width=10></TD></TR> <TR> <TD colSpan=3 height=8></TD></TR> <TR> <TD width=10></TD> <TD></TD> <TD width=10></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER></DIV> <SCRIPT language=JavaScript1.2> if( document.all.date1 ) { docDate = document.all.date1.value ; } </SCRIPT> <SCRIPT language=JavaScript src="article-postwar-plans_files/HomeMenu.js"></SCRIPT> </BODY></HTML>