ÿş<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">  <HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Al Jazeera - objective and balanced global news coverage and analysis- Features</TITLE> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=UTF-16"> <META http-equiv=Content-Type><LINK href="article-what_files/style.css" type=text/css rel=stylesheet> <META content="MSHTML 6.00.2722.900" name=GENERATOR></HEAD> <BODY leftMargin=0 topMargin=10 rightMargin=0> <DIV align=center xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"> <CENTER> <TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 10px" align=left><IMG src="article-what_files/banner.gif"></TD></TR> <TR> <TD><IMG src="article-what_files/mainheader.jpg"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER></DIV> <DIV align=center> <CENTER> <TABLE id=AutoNumber2 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#999999 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=770 border=1> <TBODY> <TR> <TD> <TABLE id=AutoNumber3 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD class=dates id=hDate dir=ltr style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px" width="80%" bgColor=#cccccc></TD> <TD dir=ltr width="20%" bgColor=#cccccc></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE id=AutoNumber4 style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=768 border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width=565> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD colSpan=2 height=5></TD></TR> <TR> <TD style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px" colSpan=2> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"> <TBODY> <TR> <TD class=indicationLink2 vAlign=top><A class=indicationLink href="http://www.thememoryhole.org/media/al-jazeera/index.html">Homepage<IMG src="article-what_files/spacer.gif" width=2 border=0></A><IMG src="article-what_files/spacer.gif" width=3 border=0><IMG src="article-what_files/spacer.gif" width=3 border=0>/ <IMG src="article-what_files/spacer.gif" width=2 border=0><A class=indicationLink href="http://www.thememoryhole.org/media/al-jazeera/topics/index8eb6.html?cu_no=1&template_id=277&temp_type=42">Features<IMG src="article-what_files/spacer.gif" width=3 border=0></A>/ </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR> <TR> <TD colSpan=3 height=6></TD></TR> <TR> <TD width=10></TD> <TD><INPUT id=item_cu_no type=hidden value=1 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=item_no type=hidden value=523 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=version type=hidden value=1 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=date1 type=hidden value=25/03/2003 xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=dateTime type=hidden value=" 9:47PM" xmlns:UDF="http://mycompany.com/mynamespace" xmlns:msxsl="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:xslt"><INPUT id=articalText type=hidden value="<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>If all goes according to the Bush administration’s plan, a post-Saddam Iraq could present itself as a key ally in the Middle East to protect US interests and teach a lesson to states perceived as hostile to Israel.<BR>&nbsp;<BR>Saudi Arabia’s powerful sway over the global oil market may become considerably less pronounced if Iraqi oil begins flowing in greater quantities, said Michael Renner, a senior researcher and security expert at Worldwatch Institute. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>Saudi Arabia, which currently provides nearly one out of every three oil barrels for the world, will no longer be the unquestioned dominant factor in the oil industry. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>Currently the oil-rich kingdom plays the role of a “swing producer,” possessing the power to compensate for shortfalls in global production and stabilising oil prices. Iraq’s oilfields, which have not been explored for 20 years, could well have reserves close to those of Saudi Arabia or even exceeding them. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>“I think what we see in effect is that Iraq may well over some years grow into a second major power in terms of having considerable influence over the world oil market,” said Renner. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>The oil and security expert pointed out that Riyadh and Washington’s traditionally strong relationship was questioned after the September 11 attacks in which most of the hijackers are&nbsp; believed by US officials&nbsp;to have hailed from Saudi Arabia.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>A post-Saddam Iraq with a US-friendly government would be vital to Washington’s Middle East strategy as it&nbsp;is no longer clear to the United States whether Riyadh was as politically reliable as assumed,&nbsp;Renner said.&nbsp; </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>“My understanding is that in Washington circles there is growing concern whether the United States can continue to rely as strongly on Saudi Arabia as it has for many decades. So having an alternative, being no longer solely reliable on this one country, is in strategic terms, considered very, very important,” explained Renner.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>But finding an alternative to Saudi Arabia in the region is not the only motive for the war. Washington believes it will be able to enhance US influence in the region by installing a friendly client state in the centre of the Middle East, said Dr. Ted Carpenter, Vice President for Defence and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>It’s not about democracy</STRONG></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>Carpenter dismissed arguments by proponents of the war, who insist that once Hussein is gone a wave of democracy will sweep through the Middle East. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>“I’m sceptical that democracy is an export product with a stamp made in the United States that can be exported to other societies. We’ve tried that in other parts of the world and it hasn’t worked very well,” he said. “If we did get this democratic transformation in the Middle East I don’t think that it would produce regimes that would be friendlier to the United States and certainly not friendly to Israel.” </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>Renner, a member of the influential think tank, the Cato Institute, said the White House's&nbsp;enumeration of moral reasons&nbsp;for toppling Hussein were suspect because the US track record&nbsp;points to&nbsp;a more cynical&nbsp;policy. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>“During the 1980s Iraq was a <EM>de facto </EM>ally of the United States. The United States supplied Baghdad with many of the ingredients that were used to develop chemical and biological weapons programs. And we knew at the time that it was using those weapons against Iranian troops and against its own population,” said Carpenter. These brutal acts didn’t bother the United States until Iraq invaded oil-rich Kuwait and took over the tiny Gulf state’s oilfields in 1990, he added. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>Carpenter rejected the pro-war camp’s arguments that Iraq posed a security threat to the United States. “It only presents a threat if policymakers in America are paranoid,” he added, reiterating Washington’s problems with Iraq only emerged after Baghdad’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait. “We didn’t go to war because Iraq posed a credible threat to the United States and nothing has really changed in the intervening eleven and a half years.” </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Is it all about Israel?</STRONG></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>Retired US foreign service diplomat Joseph Wilson offered yet another scenario for Washington’s impetus for war against Iraq, saying that reshaping the Middle East’s political map would be in the national security interest of both Israel and the United States, </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>“(President Bush) can talk about disarmament, he can talk about terrorism, but if you look at the writings of the people who are shaping the recommendations that are going to him a good amount of it…is to re-shape the security situation in the Middle East so as to bring down the level of violence that takes place against our strategic ally,” said Wilson.<BR>&nbsp;<BR>He dismissed arguments that the Bush administration’s motives for war against Iraq&nbsp;formed part of its war against terrorism because everyone believed, “another American humiliation of the Arab world through this particularly violent war will in fact breed a whole new generation of terrorists.” </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>But Wilson, who was the last American diplomat to have met with Hussein during Desert Storm, warned that re-shaping the region would not necessarily benefit the United States since it would likely trigger resistance from the Arab world. “My experience in the Arab world is that the people do not particularly appreciate invaders,” said Wilson. “Arabs just like people everywhere else will have a tendency… to resist invaders,” he added. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;The retired US diplomat said many members of the pro-war camp were “confirmed unilateralists,” suspicious of the United Nations, which they view as a constraint on Washington’s ability to act in what it perceives as its own self-defence. “I believe that they have confused America’s strategic responsibility for Israel’s territorial integrity with the slavish support of Likud,” in a reference to Israel’s hardline ruling party.<BR>&nbsp;<BR>The pro-war camp in Washington was devising this war as a lesson, said Wilson. “The lesson that they’re trying to impose is not the lesson that the President says it is, the lesson being if you play with terrorists you are a terrorist, if you house a terrorist you are a terrorist. I think the lesson they’re trying to impose is….if you try and combat Israel…we’re going to come after you.”&nbsp;</FONT></P>
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