Study: Iraq could arm nukes quickly

Sept. 9 — Iraq could build a nuclear bomb in a matter of months if it were to obtain radioactive material from abroad but Saddam Hussein's regime currently lacks the ability to make its own nuclear material, a leading independent think-tank said Monday. The report, which also said Iraq was working to develop equipment to make bomb components, will sharpen debate over how to deal with Saddam as President Bush prepares to make a key Iraq policy speech before the United Nations later this week.

JOHN CHIPMAN, co-author of a study on Saddam's weapons of mass destruction program, said the Iraqi leader is trying to build nuclear weapons. He said that the Iraqis are developing machines to make nuclear material for weapons, but would need assistance and material from foreign sources to build a nuclear bomb soon.

"However, were he able to obtain fissile material from abroad, steal it or buy it in some way, we certainly believe he has the ability to put together a nuclear weapon very quickly, in a matter of months,” Chipman, director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Monday in London at a news conference to announce the release of the report.

Iraq possesses a small force of missiles capable of delivering a nuclear weapon despite international efforts to destroy such weapons, Chipman said. The report estimates Iraq has up to 12 missiles with a range of about 400 miles, which could reach Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel, Iran and Turkey.

Iraq has also probably managed to hide some chemical and biological weapons, Chipman’s report concludes.

ATTEMPT TO PRODUCE OWN MATERIAL
Iraq is trying to build gas centrifuge machines that could produce weapons grade nuclear material, but is still far from success, Chipman said.

"We certainly confirm that it would be difficult for him in the absence of substantial foreign assistance or the lifting of sanctions soon to be able to develop his own fissile material," he said.

The study echoes the conclusions of previous assessments by the International Atomic Energy Agency as well as analysis of U.S. intelligence officials. Officials tell NBC News that there is no evidence the Iraqis are seeking fissile material on the black market.

The United States has been calling for action to stop Iraq’s efforts to build weapons of mass destruction, saying Baghdad poses a threat to U.S. and international interests.

Britain has pledged strong support for Washington, but most of America’s allies are hesitant, urging Bush to work through the United Nations for a political solution.

BUSH LOBBIES SKEPTICAL ALLIES
After meeting with Tony Blair at the presidential retreat at Camp David this weekend, Bush and the British prime minister highlighted Saddam's potential to develop nuclear weapons.

British officials said on Sunday that Blair, who also warned of the “real threat” Saddam posed, had seen an advance copy of the IISS report.

Bush was in Detroit Monday, meeting privately with Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien to air his concerns about Saddam and the need for a change in leadership.

Chretien has expressed doubts about the need for military action, saying he has yet to see evidence that would justify Canadian support for a military campaign against Iraq. But he said in advance of the meeting that he was ready to hear Bush’s reasons.

“I will see what he has to say, I will listen and we will decide,” Chretien said on Thursday.

Canada has supplied special forces troops, other soldiers, ships and planes as logistical support in the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan.

PRESIDENT MISSTATES 'FACTS'

In his meeting with Blair, Bush cited a satellite photograph and a report by the U.N. atomic energy agency as evidence of Iraq's impending rearmament. However, in response to a report by NBC News, a senior administration official acknowledged Saturday night that the U.N. report drew no such conclusion, and a spokesman for the U.N. agency said the photograph had been misinterpreted.

Blair cited a newly released satellite photo of Iraq identifying new construction at several sites linked in the past to Baghdad's development of nuclear weapons. And both leaders mentioned a 1998 report by the U.N.-affiliated International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, that said Saddam could be six months away from developing nuclear weapons.

"I don't know what more evidence we need," Bush said, standing alongside Blair. "We owe it to future generations to deal with this problem."

In a joint appearance before the summit, the two leaders repeated their shared view that Saddam's ouster was the only way to stop Iraq's pursuit — and potential use — of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.

"The policy of inaction is not a policy we can responsibly subscribe to," Blair said as he joined Bush in trying to rally reluctant allies to deal with Saddam, perhaps by military force.

IAEA: NUCLEAR ABILITY DESTROYED
Contrary to Bush's claim, however, the 1998 IAEA report did not say that Iraq was six months away from developing nuclear capability, NBC News' Robert Windrem reported Saturday.

Instead, Windrem reported, the Vienna, Austria-based agency said in 1998 that Iraq had been six to 24 months away from such capability before the 1991 Persian Gulf War and the U.N.-monitored weapons inspections that followed.

The war and the inspections destroyed much of Iraq's nuclear infrastructure and required Iraq to turn over its highly enriched uranium and plutonium, Windrem reported.

In a summary of its 1998 report, the IAEA said that "based on all credible information available to date ... the IAEA has found no indication of Iraq having achieved its program goal of producing nuclear weapons or of Iraq having retained a physical capability for the production of weapon-useable nuclear material or having clandestinely obtained such material."

WHITE HOUSE ADMITS ERROR
A senior White House official acknowledged Saturday night that the 1998 report did not say what Bush claimed. "What happened was, we formed our own conclusions based on the report," the official told NBC News' Norah O'Donnell.

Meanwhile, Mark Gwozdecky, a spokesman for the U.N. agency, disputed Bush's and Blair's assessment of the satellite photograph, which was first publicized Friday. Contrary to news service reports, there was no specific photo or building that aroused suspicions, he told Windrem.

The photograph in question was not U.N. intelligence imaging but simply a picture from a commercial satellite imaging company, Gwozdecky said. He said that the IAEA reviewed commercial satellite imagery regularly and that, from time to time, it noticed construction at sites it had previously examined.

Gwozdecky said the new construction indicated in the photograph was no surprise and that no conclusions were drawn from it. “There is not a single building we see,” he said.

IRAQIS MET WITH U.N. OFFICIALS
Windrem reported that of all the international inspection regimes — chemical, biological, missile and nuclear — it is the U.N. inspectors who are most comfortable with Iraq's cooperation on nuclear matters. In fact, the United Nations said last week that Iraq had been in contact with U.N. representatives about a possible new round of talks on weapons inspections.

A Security Council report Tuesday on the work of UNMOVIC — the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission — found that personnel from UNMOVIC and the atomic energy agency met in Vienna in July with Iraqi officials and Dr. Jaffar Jaffar, a high-level Iraqi contact on nuclear weapons issues.

The head of UNMOVIC also took part in what the report called a “dialogue” between Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri.

Tuesday's report stated that Sabri wrote Annan expressing "the desire of the Government of Iraq to conduct a round of technical talks" between Iraqi officials and UNMOVIC representatives to review work on inspections between May 1991 and December 1998 and to discuss other matters to be resolved "when the inspection regime returns to Iraq."

Sabri extended “the offer of Iraq to take part in a further series of technical discussions" in a letter last month, the U.N. report said.

U.S. officials insisted Saturday night that there was plenty of evidence nonetheless that Iraq was intent on developing weapons of mass destruction.

A senior administration official told NBC News that Iraq had also tried to acquire thousands of aluminum tubes over the past 14 months that would specifically be used in developing nuclear weapons. The shipments were blocked, said the official, who would not say where they originated.

"There continues to be ample evidence that Saddam Hussein has relentlessly tried to acquire and develop weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons," the official said.

The tubing is needed to build gas centrifuges, which can be used to enrich uranium to weapons grade.

NBC's Robert Windrem and Norah O'Donnell; The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.